不同学2023-02-14 14:20:44
老师168看不懂能讲一下吗
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ES2023-02-14 16:07:29
题目问:What is the probability that a B-rated bond defaults over the next two (2) years
注意,这里问的是两年后违约,所以有四种情况:
(1) B → A → D
(2) B → B → D
(3) B → C → D
(4) B → D → D
所以:
Cumulative default probability=P(B → A ) × P(A → D ) + P(B → B ) × P(B → D ) + P(B → C ) × P(C → D ) + P(B → D ) × P(D → D )
P= 3.0%×1.0% +86.0×3.0% +8.0%×10.0% + 3.0%×100% = 6.41%
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