Robyn2023-12-10 00:24:53
A disadvantage of the leading indicators–based approach is that historically, it has not consistently worked because relationships between inputs are not static. An advantage to the econometric approach is that it provides quantitative estimates of the effects on the economy of changes in exogenous variables. ——为什么not static就会导致not consistently worked呢?
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Johnny2023-12-10 17:40:20
同学你好。Leading indicator的缺陷如下:经济数据可能会经常被修正、可能给出错误的预测信号、只能给出yes or no之类的预测结果,;例如它只能预测经济是好转还是恶化,但是无法预测经济究竟会增长到什么程度。
而relationships between input是计量模型的缺点,这通常是由于经济结构变化,或者是模型对经济运行的假设出错所导致的
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