袁同学2021-02-24 11:08:46
这是原版书中的一段话,对于通胀在预期内和超出预期,对债券产品的影响,但是不是很理解,希望老师解释下:Because the cash flows are fixed in nominal terms, the effect of inflation is transmitted solely through the discount rates (i.e., the yield curve). Rising (falling) inflation induces capital losses (gains) as the expected inflation component of yields rises (falls). If inflation remains within the expected cyclical range, shorter-term yields rise/fall more than longer yields but have less price impact as a result of shorter duration. If, however, inflation moves out of the expected range, longer-term yields may rise/fall more sharply as investors reassess the likelihood of a change in the long-run average level of inflation. Persistent deflation benefits the highest-quality bonds because it increases the purchasing power of the cash flows, but it is likely to impair the creditworthiness of lower-quality debt. (1)为什么通胀在预期内,收益率曲线更平坦,超出预期,收益率曲线更陡峭? (2)通胀在预期内,资本利得的损失会减少? (3)通胀如果超出预期,为什么长期的收益率波动更大? 谢谢老师
回答(1)
开开2021-02-24 18:01:36
同学你好:
1)如果通胀上升的的幅度在预期的周期波动范围内,那么短期的利率会快速反应这一变化,但因为长期的通胀预期比较稳定,因此长端利率上行的比短期的少,因此收益率曲线相对之前变平坦了;但如果上升幅度超过预期的范围,那么大家对长期通胀的预期也会调升,使得长端的利率也款速上行,甚至比短期升更快。这也回答了第三个问题,3)为什么如果通胀超预期,长端收益率变动幅度比较大,因为长期通胀预期发生改变了。
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2)通胀上行如果在预期内,那短期利率上行比长端多,但短期利率久期短,对债券价格影响不大。而如果通胀超预期上升,长端利率上行较多。长端利率久期大,价格会因此下降更多。因此,通胀超预期上行对债券的价格的不利影响更大。
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