litongxue2025-10-23 23:01:01
我对原版书课后的一道题有问题: Li’s team also examines survey data projecting the future performance of the consumer credit and telecommunications industries over the same time period for which the actual performance data was collected. They found that projections in the survey data tended to be more volatile than the actual performance data. However, Li’s team decided not to make any adjustments to the survey data because a definitive procedure could not be determined. 我认为是Status Quo Bias,但是答案是ex post risk as a biased measure of ex anti risk。 麻烦老师帮我解答一下,谢谢
回答(1)
Vincent2025-10-26 14:52:15
你好
Status Quo Bias的核心是"避免改变的心理倾向",例如,因习惯或惰性而拒绝调整流程。
而Li团队比较了调查预测(ex ante)和实际数据(ex post),发现预测更波动。如果他们根据ex post数据的波动性强行调整ex ante预测,相当于用事后结果"反向修正"事前预期。这是不对的,实际结果受到预测时未知的随机事件影响(如经济危机、政策变化),而预测无法完全涵盖这些因素。但这不意味着预测本身有误。
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