王同学2019-01-25 13:29:57
Reading50里面的EXAMPLE 9的问题2的解答没有看懂。 题目是Suppose the investor predicts Assets #1 and #2 to outperform and that Assets #3 and #4 will underperform. Conceptually speaking (i.e., exact numbers are not necessary), how will these scores affect the information coefficient in the fundamental law compared with a prediction that Assets #1 and #3 will outperform and Assets #2 and #4 will underperform? 解答是According to the risk model, the active returns to Assets #1 and #2 tend to move together, so a forecast that both will outperform is not as ambitious as a forecast that one will outperform while the other underperforms. As a result, the information coefficient will be adjusted downward by more under the first set of forecasts than under the second set of forecasts. 我不明白的问题有两个:第一,为什么IC会be adjusted downward;第二,为什么ambitious的IC大,不ambitious的IC小?谢谢老师
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Bingo2019-01-25 15:55:49
同学你好。Information Coefficient表示预测能力。1号和2号是正相关的,这两个和3、4都不相干;而3和4是有相关性的。
现在A预测:1和2表现好,3和4表现不好;
B预测:1和3表现好,2和4表现不好。
那么你会觉得谁更厉害呢?
会觉得第二个人更厉害吧,因为1和3 correlation是0,而1和2本就是正相关的。所以第一个人对应的IC应该adjust downward,否则的话,他对应的IR就被高估了。
a forecast that both will outperform is not as ambitious as a forecast that one will outperform while the other underperforms这句话就是说,A的预测,不像B那么有雄心。就好比,一个学生每次都考年级第一,我预测他下次还考年级第一;另一名学生,一直倒数第一,但是我预测他下次考试考年级第一,相比之下,后者的预测更有雄心。
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