谢同学2022-10-31 22:29:35
原版书module1的EXAMPLE 8 Capital Flows and Exchange Rates的第1题. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the: A. long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward. B. nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time. C. expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward. 为什么选C?
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Essie2022-11-01 10:54:27
你好,这题考察PPP理论的理解,该理论认为预期的汇率变动是由预期名义通胀率的变动来解释,两国预期通胀的差距上升,(EM的通胀上升或DM的通胀下降),都会导致EM的货币发生贬值。
A选项,高收益货币的长期均衡值向上修正会导致EM货币升值。
B选项,nominal yield spread中包含两个市场实际利率的差异和预期通胀的差异,所以如果只说nominal yield spread上升,是无法得知是预期通胀的变化还是实际利率的变化导致,两国通胀差异上升,EM货币贬值,两国实际利率差异上升,EM货币会升值。
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