Leo2022-10-05 10:33:10
电子版讲义材料里写到research shows that inflation explains two-third of long-term yield variation.和视频中two-thirds of short and one-third of long-term variation有所矛盾,哪个是正确的呢?
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Essie2022-10-08 10:35:57
你好,感谢你的指正,视频中参考的是原版书的说法,但是后来原版书由勘误了,所以在讲义中做了修改。勘误内容如下:
The fifth paragraph in Section 9 (page 375 of print) should read, “Research shows that although inflation, GDP, and monetary policy explain most of the variance of bond yields, short- and intermediate-term bond yields are driven mostly by monetary policy, whereas other factors such as inflation are key drivers of long-term yields. Monetary policy explains about two-thirds of short- and intermediate-term bond yield variation, with the remaining third roughly equally attributable to economic growth and factors including inflation. In contrast, inflation explains nearly two-thirds of long-term yield variation, and the remaining third is largely attributable to monetary policy.”
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结论是短期主要受monetary policy影响,inflation和GDP影响较小;长期主要受inflation影响,monetary policy影响较小。因此长期不受GDP影响是吗?这个考点会怎么出题考察呢?
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短期利率主要受货币政策影响,长期利率主要受通胀和经济增长的影响。
长期利率会受GDP影响,书上省略了这一点,只着重说了通胀,考察方式就是考概念,参考原版书课后题Reading 28第40题。
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方便贴一下题目和答案吗?谢谢
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见下图
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