beeelll2022-04-18 00:22:59
beeelll请问课后题reading23 第28题的A选项怎么理解呢？abc公司如果成为takeover candidate的话未来cf应该是没有办法predict的吧？所以statement1应该也是正确的吧？就不适合用fcf valuation modle？
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开开2022-04-18 16:38:01
开开同学你好，对于收购目标公司如何估值是在公司金融部分由详细的讲解。即使公司成为了target company，我们也可以用FCF折现模型对公司进行估值的，只要我们把合并带来的协同效应和成本结构等变化体现出来即可。
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那么请问即将成为target company 的公司 哪种估值方法不能用啊？哪种估值方法有最适合呢？我记得老师上课好想讲过但我找不到在那里讲的了😂😂
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一共有三种方法，都有优缺点的。同学可以参考下面总结的内容。同学也可以去公司金融基础课部分R23 Mergers and Acquisitions的Target Company Valuation部分复习以下。
1、Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Advantages：优点
◼ Expected changes in the target company’s cash flows. 目标公司现金流量的预期变化
◼ An estimate of intrinsic value based on forecast fundamentals is provided by the model. 该模型基于预测的基本面信息给出内在价值的估计
◼ Changes in assumptions and estimates can be incorporated by customizing and modifying the mode. 假设和估计的更改可以包含自定义和修改的模式
⚫ Disadvantages：缺点
◼ It is difficult to apply when free cash flows do not align with profitability within the first stage. 当自由现金流与第一阶段的盈利能力不相符时，就很难适用，即自由现金流是负值时，无法使用
◼ Estimating cash flows and earnings far into the future is not an exact science. 估算遥远未来的现金流和收益并不是一门精确的科学，即未来现金流和盈利的估计会有误差
◼ Estimates of discount rates can change over time. 对折现率的估计可能会随着时间而变化
◼ Terminal value estimates often subject the acquisition value calculations to a disproportionate degree of estimate error. 终值估计常常受不成比例的估计误差而主观影响收购价值的计算
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2、Comparable Company Analysis
⚫ Advantages：优点
◼ A reasonable approximation of a target company’s value relative to similar companies in the market. 目标公司的估值是市场上同类公司的估值的合理的近似值
◼ Most of the required data are readily available. 所需的数据大部分都是现成的（容易获得数据）
◼ The estimates of value are derived directly from the market. 价值估计直接来自市场
⚫ Disadvantages：缺点
◼ The method is sensitive to market mispricing. 该方法对市场的错误定价很敏感
◼ In order to estimate a fair takeover price, analysts must additionally estimate a fair takeover premium and use that information to adjust the estimated stock price. 为了估计一个公允的收购价格，分析师必须额外估计一个公允的收购溢价，并利用这些信息来调整估计的股价
◼ The analysis may be inaccurate because it is difficult for the analyst to incorporate any specific plans for the target. 分析可能是不准确的，因为分析师在分析中难以结合目标公司的任何特定计划，例如资本结构的改变
◼ The data available for past premiums may not be accurate for the particular target company under consideration. 对于所考虑的特定目标公司而言，过去溢价可用数据可能不准确，即过去可比公司的溢价不一定适合目标公司当前的状况
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3、Comparable Transaction Analysis
Advantages：优点
◼ It is not necessary to separately estimate a takeover premium. 没有必要单独估算收购溢价
◼ The takeover value estimates come directly from values that were recently established in the market. 收购价的估计直接来自最近在市场上实际存在的估值
◼ The use of prices established through other recent transactions reduces litigation risk for both companies’ board of directors and managers regarding the merger transaction’s pricing. 使用近期的交易价格，降低了两家公司董事会和管理层关于兼并交易定价的诉讼风险
⚫ Disadvantages：缺点
◼ There is a risk that the real takeover values in past transactions were not accurate. 在过去的交易中，真实的收购价值存在不准确的风险
◼ There may not be any, or an adequate number of, comparable transactions to use for calculating the takeover value. 可能没有任何或者足够数量的可比较交易用于计算收购价值
◼ The analysis may be inaccurate because it is difficult for the analyst to incorporate any specific plans for the target. 分析可能是不准确的，因为分析师在分析中难以结合目标公司的任何特定计划，例如资本结构的改变
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