穆同学2019-05-24 17:15:14
穆同学老师，这个题吧，跟学的不太一样。经济好转起来了，不是value～growth。
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Chris Lan2019-05-24 17:40:58
Chris Lan同学你好，这个逻辑是基于原版书上的一段原话，这是根据美国市场的实证经验得到的。
他的结论是，在经济衰退过后，价值型股票的表现往往优于成长型股票，而成长型股票在经济扩张时期的表现往往优于价值型股票。
In Panel A of Exhibit 28, we present the relative performance of US growth versus US value stocks since the 1970s. There are quite clear periods of outperformance of one style over the other. Close inspection of the chart suggests that value tends to outperform growth investing in the aftermath of a recession, and that growth stocks tend to outperform value stocks in times when the economy is expanding. The most impressive period of outperformance of one style over the other was between 1994 and 2000 when growth investing outperformed value investing by a cumulative 85%.
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This time was the high-tech bubble period when dot-com and technology stocks were in vogue. Being new, many of these stocks had little or no earnings, but were bought in the hope that their earnings would grow rapidly in the future. With the bursting of the bubble, value stocks outperformed growth stocks by a similar amount until 2005 when the relative performance of these two groups of stocks turned again.
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所以啊，经济好转了不应该是value转grow？
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答案是grow转value啊…
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同学你好，在经济衰退过后，经济开始回暖的时候，价值型股票的表现往往优于成长型股，因此他把growth变成value是没有问题的啊。
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所以，就是这样搞晕的…
所以，经济好转，开始复苏，成长优于价值
经济不好，价值优于成长。
一直这么讲的。
但这道题，经济好起来了转成value了…晕啊…
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同学你好，这个是书上的原话，而且他是两个阶段，一个是经济衰退之后，刚开始反转的时候，value表现是好的；而经济扩张时，是表示已经反转了一段时间，开始一片繁荣的时候，growth表现更好。
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这个样子？
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同学你好，这个理解是对的，因为经济从衰退到扩张不是一蹴而就的，他是先开始复苏，在开始复苏的时候，value型的表现更好，而复苏到一定阶段开始扩张时，这个时候growth表现就会更好了。
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