WS22019-12-08 00:42:01

We are looking to find P(G/U), the probability the economy grows given that ABC stock is up. P(G) probability the economy grows = 0.50 P(R) = probability of a recession 0.50 P(U/G) = probability the stock is up given the economy grows = 0.60 P(U/R) = probability the stock is up given the economy goes into a recession = 0.15 Using Bayes’ formula: P(G/U) = P(G)* P(UIC)/[P(C) P(UIG) P(R) P(U/R) P(G/U) = (0.50) * (0.60)/[(0.50)(0.60) (0.50)(0.15) P(G/U) = 0.3/0.375 = 0.8 = 80.0% 没有看懂