岳同学2019-12-13 12:01:39
老師在課堂上說到 slowdown phase in the economic cycle. Bond yield is likely inverted. 在reading 10 中 practice problem 第8題: "Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:" A. invert. B. flatten. C. steepen. C is correct. The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase. 請問為什麼不能選 A? 謝謝
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Dean2019-12-13 16:36:26
同学你好,请注意表格中的信息,表头是预期接下来的经济阶段Y国是contractionary ,那就意味着投资者会更多的配置债券,尤其是长期债券(基于长期的经济预期),从而使得长期债券价格上升,而收益率曲线继续向下,在经济达到开始复苏之前是变得最为陡峭的。
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長期債卷價格上升代表長端收益率下降,短期利率在經濟擴張後期不是應該是peaking , 那長期利收益率下降,短期上升,那應該收益率曲線會inverted?
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同学你好,你这里理解的也没错,但是你说的是上一个阶段slowdown,在这个阶段,短期利率达到顶点peak,而长端利率是下降的。所以可能会出现flatten,甚至invert。到这里你理解的没问题。
但是这道题涉及两个阶段,根据主人公的描述,该国当前是slowdown,所以短期利率不会再上升了达到peak,已经出现了contraction的特征,就意味着短期利率会下降,所以是steepen


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